COVID Tests: Sweet Little Lies…

2 Responses

  1. Markus says:

    All your math is correct. But you make one very wrong assumption: You assume a specifity of the test of 99%. In practice (at least that’s how it is done here in Germany) when a test comes out as positive it is tested a second time (using another gene) and if it is still positive it is tested a third time. It is very feasible to test the positives again as the burden of retesting is low given that the absolute number of (correctly and incorrectly) tested positives is very low. What this retesting means is that the specificity raises to levels of 99.99 % or higher. Now, do your math again with this value.

    • John Kouraklis says:

      Hi,
      Yes, you are right. That is the correct approach; to retest the identified cases again and, perhaps, more than one times.
      As far as I know, the positive cases in the UK are not tested again. If they were, we wouldn’t object the outcomes.

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